Sunday, July 30, 2006

Roulette Table: Going cheap

By Guy Rundle

FOR decades, the budget traveller in Europe accepted that the necessary but painful core of the experience was covering the distance between the glittering capitals either wedged in the seat of a bus designed for tiny people, crawling through the industrial district of some hell-hole at 3am, or sharing a Kombi with a Dutch hippie named Wim with a theory about Frank Zappa and the moon landings.

But that's all changed in the past 10 years. The cheap-flight revolution began in the late 1990s and now the continent is crisscrossed with every conceivable route, from the big capitals to disused military airports put back into service. With proper planning you can save hundreds of dollars on a holiday, but it takes a bit of work and lateral thinking.
1. Set aside a few hours for research: There are about a dozen notable cheap airlines and a range of more obscure ones, and the best way to get a good deal (if you are a little flexible about destination and date) is to compare as many as possible and try a few route combinations with different airlines. This is best done manually, website by website. There are several websites that purport to find the cheapest available flights but they're rarely completely up to date (prices can change within a day), and they often don't include the smaller airlines.

The largest of the cheap airlines is Irish carrier Ryanair, with a network centred on London, Dublin, Barcelona and Berlin. It is aggressively trying to cement its leading position, building customer loyalty by offering free flights – that is, for one €cent, plus about €10 ($17) in taxes.

Second largest is Easyjet, the company that really kick-started the low-cost flight revolution, but it certainly isn't the cheapest player on the market. Other carriers have their specialties – Skyeurope, for example, is centred on Bratislava, the otherwise dispensable capital of Slovakia, and great for southeastern Europe. Wizzair specialises in Poland and surrounds. BMI Baby flies from regional British cities to Europe and has no flights out of London except for a few British Airways services.

2. Be thorough: There are many valid reasons why a really cheap flight could be lurking amid a range of more expensive ones. A carrier may be offering a destination at, say, €60 including taxes for 12 or 13 days and, right in the middle, there's one for €5. Why? Who knows? Maybe there was a one-way charter booked. Maybe it's a plane that has to be rerouted to get the schedule back in kilter. Keep various websites open in multiple windows, and jump from site to site. It's worthwhile keeping notes as you go to avoid getting lost in a variety of options.

Two carriers that save research time by having an automatic lowest-fare search function are Jet2 and Thomsonfly. Unfortunately, most of their flights leave from Leeds or Sheffield, respectively. The others make you trawl, presumably in the hope you'll tire and book a mid-price fare.

3. Be flexible with dates and cities: The cheapest flights are at least a couple of weeks out and usually, but not always, in the early morning. Be flexible about destinations, too: many such flights are cheap because they are going to underused airports, and it's worth looking at the cities close to where you want to go and considering nearby alternatives.

If you can find a cheap flight from London to Madrid, for example, well, congratulations, you don't need to read any further, but otherwise you might try flying into Santander (in the north of Spain) or Valladolid. Never heard of either? No matter: they are a two-hour or three-hour train ride or drive from Madrid, and flights there from Britain should be at rock-bottom prices.

The alternative gateway strategy is particularly useful in countries with multiple destinations and cheap local transport, such as Portugal and Poland.

You can even fly into one country to get to another – for instance, the best way into Andalusia in Spain might be to take a flight to the Portuguese city of Faro, where a bus ticket or car rental to Seville will be much cheaper than flying direct.

But beware the idiosyncrasies of local transport networks. It's easy to be too clever by half and arrive in Szczecin just after the departure of the twice-weekly train to Warsaw.

4. Make careful note of where the airports actually are: Many airports are only nominally in the city listed as their destination. Flying to Grenoble gets you to Lyons and a shuttle bus. The classic is Frankfurt, as what you're actually flying into is an airport called Frankfurt (Hahn), a couple of hundred kilometres from the city, with a half-dozen cities closer to it than the one after which it is named. Factoring in the cost of getting to the airport is crucial: it may well be more expensive than the actual flight.

5. Be careful booking multiple-leg journeys: The low-cost airlines are point-to-point, which means that even if you're connecting via the same airline, it won't automatically rebook a flight you missed because an earlier one was late. This is particularly important in winter when fog in Europe's north can delay takeoff by hours. Most airlines will rebook at a cost – as much as pound £40 ($100) – that could be more than the actual ticket.

Ideally, aim to arrive in the early morning and leave late afternoon from the same airport (landing in Stansted and taking off from Gatwick is to be avoided at all costs), thus saving the cost of a hotel.

6. Book return flights well ahead: It's easy to grab a cheap outward flight, forget to book a return and suddenly realise the only flights available have skyrocketed to full commercial prices. One solution, if your return date isn't all that definite, is to book multiple return flights. It may seem crazy but it's cheaper to book flights costing €15 out on, say, three consecutive Tuesday mornings six weeks ahead, rather than waiting until two days before you go and then paying €150. (Of course, you won't be refunded for unused seats.)

Once you get over the weirdness of booking flights as if you were betting on a roulette table, you'll see it makes sense.

7. Be lateral: It might be cheaper and quicker to fly in a V-shape than to take a train between two destinations. It may well be easier to get from Esbjerg in Denmark to Gothenburg in Sweden – and who among us hasn't needed to – by flying into and out of Geneva (on different carriers) than it would be to take the two trains necessary to get there.

8. Be open-minded: One of the best things about the cheap-flight era is that it has opened up cities we might otherwise never have considered. Be willing to take pot luck and go where the cheap fares lead you. Who knew that the Pyrenees city of Pau would be such a mysterious border town? Or how about Lubeck in Germany, the city that invented marzipan and seems to run on it still? But don't feel too much like a carefree jetsetter: Ryanair has introduced a policy of charging extra for non-cabin luggage and other carriers are likely to follow.


Copyright 2006 News Limited. All times AEST (GMT + 10).

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Roulette Table:Excerpt: The End of Medicine, "The Med Conference"

Per today's DealBreaker Interview, below is an excerpt from Andy Kessler's new book, The End of Medicine

I was back in New York again. The American Airlines shuttle across the U.S. – another 3 mrems of radiation.

The Grand Hyatt hadn’t changed much. Same crowded sidewalk next to Grand Central Terminal. Same bustling lobby. Same set of four or five escalators up and over and up and over until you reach the ballroom level. As with every investor conference, it is filled with scurrying mice in tailored suits, all looking for the next greatest thing. And for days, every thirty minutes in six different tracks, companies endlessly pitch their golden prospects. Every damn one of them sounds like the next greatest thing, so the mice scurry some more, discuss amongst themselves and probe and prod CEOs with insightful questions until the mice are so confused, they just ask someone else what they should buy.


I’ve been to so many tech conferences, I could tell you where the bathroom and best cellular reception is in the leading hotels of the world. But this was a healthcare conference. I pulled some strings at Bear Stearns and wangled an invite. I figured it would be a great forum to get instantly up to speed on the healthcare industry. So I put on a suit, slogged to NY, sweated in 95 degree heat, and pretended to be interested in Phase 2 trials of monoclonal antibodies. What I learned was that healthcare investing was a bigger crap shoot then technology.

“What do you think of these guys?”

“Curagen?”

“Yeah.”

“Too early.”

“But they’re in Phase 2 on their cancer thing – PXD101 I think. I thought you like Phase 2?”

“I do, but it’s not theirs.”

“Sure it is.”

“Nope, they licensed it, not enough upside. No one is going to care.”

I was eavesdropping on two guys I recognized from the past. One guy used to run some tech money, I think I remember him getting blown out in 2000 for being long and wrong. But he’s obviously still in the business. I strained to read his name tag, without luck. The other guy was a classic popcorn hedgie. Always showing up where the action in, figuring out some angle and trading rapid fire looking for returns.

“For me, it’s just one thing.”

“Market size?”

“Nope, these are all billion dollar markets.”

“Management?”

“Nope, they’re all trying to hit fish with a baseball bat.”

“True. So what is it? Balance sheet? Partners? Their logo?”

“You just play the trials. I don’t give a shit what drug it is, it almost always works the same way.”

“Get out of here.”

“No, check it out. Preclinical is bullshit, you could get gum off the sidewalk to reduce tumor size in rats. So what? Even Phase 1 is a load. They are mostly bent around to get decent enough results so you can get to Phase 2. I’ve tried to time Phase 1 announcements, but no dice. You always wait until you are about a third of the way into Phase 2, then you buy the shit out the stock."

“C’mon.”
“It works. The first few press releases are almost guaranteed to be positive. Companies will do anything to get their stock up before the final results hit. Phase 3 is just so damn expensive, they want to sell stock or converts or something so they don’t have to give the damn drug away to big pharma.”

“OK.”

“Look, the stock almost always pops. I usually sell into it, unless the press release is blow-away efficacy numbers, then you can stick around. But not forever.”

“No?”

“Hell no, you almost always sell right before the Phase 2 trial is over. Everyone figures it’s gonna work, so the stock goes up until the day of the announcement. It almost always gets whacked when they announce the real results, people already know. The doctors have been trading the stock ahead of you and dump it on the news.”

“That’s it?”

“I sometimes do Phase 3, but that’s harder. Even if something works, the costs kill you. The stocks going
down.”

“But it pops on the news at the end of Phase 3.”

“Sometimes. Not always. You can get killed if the trial fails.”

“Can’t you play that?”

“Nah. I don’t like to gamble. Not even in Vegas.”

* * *

I spent several days walking the halls, popping into presentations, seeing if I could hear about some sea change in healthcare. Investors always hear about things first. Instead I heard about drugs that might or might not treat bone metastases, myelogenous leukemia, multiple myeloma, kidney inflammation, and on and on.

I didn’t hear about innovation – more like regimentation.

I don’t know how many times I heard the expression fully randomized, double blind, placebo trial. Every biotech and pharma company pitched some set of compounds in trials. They were rooting away, but had absolutely no idea if the damn thing really worked. Even big companies with billions in sales of some drug pitched their replacements when they went off patent. It seemed like a giant roulette table. If 17 black comes up, you win 35 to 1, else, zippo.

Even the popcorn hedgie didn’t like those odds, settling for smaller returns with a bet based on knowing how fast the wheel spins. Jeez.


Posted by Elizabeth Spiers on July 24, 2006 01:03 PM

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Roulette Table: Nightlife Agenda

Thursday, July 20

Sometimes we fancy ourselves as budding James Bonds, cleaning up at baccarat in some glamorous Monaco casino, or as the next three members of Ocean's 11 -- er, 16. Who doesn't want to be a high roller? (Though as Atlantic City-loving David reminds us, when you go to Vegas, "There's a reason you only take as much money as you can afford to lose.") For now, we're sticking closer to home. The worthy local charity Bread for the City is sponsoring a casino night fundraiser at the 18th Amendment tonight, and the $25 donation at the door gets all would-be Sam Harmons a stack of chips, drink specials, free appetizers and a raffle ticket. Then you can let loose at the blackjack, roulette and craps tables. (Remember what Albert Einstein reputedly said about roulette: "You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.") The gaming runs from 7 to 10, and the overall winners receive prizes. Advance tickets are available from Bread and the City's Andrea Messina on 202-587-0539.


Nightlife Agenda Podcast

Chopteeth Brings the Afrofunk
In the latest installment of our Nightlife Agenda Podcast, washingtonpost.com Music Editor David Malitz talks to Michael Shereikis of the local Afrofunk group Chopteeth and plays two exclusive tracks.


Friday, July 21
On hot summer nights when the city is bursting at the seams with music, mingling and mirth, it can be a drag to have to pack it in when your last destination of the night brings the house lights up. A lot of people move towards late-night dining spots, but it's rare to find something that won't sit like a rock in your gut the next day, let alone a place that allows you to wind down slowly from your night or continue to chat up that nice new friend you made. Thankfully, vocalist Bilal Salaam is making just such a space available at Bohemian Caverns tonight after his gig sharing the stage with India.Arie. His Bohemian Tea Party is a free after-hours jam session fueled by a tea and juice bar and featuring some of his soulful and jazzy peers from the local scene.

Longevity is a rare commodity in the rap world -- it's a cutthroat young man's game -- but Busta Rhymes continues to lead and dominate. The iconic madness in the two or three club bangers that end up smashing the charts on each of his releases is only one element in this master MC's toolbox. Between albums, Busta still floods the streets with full mixtapes just to show how nice he is. No one else with almost 20 years in the game can do that. He made a power move linking up with Dr. Dre's Aftermath, and the resulting album "The Big Bang" shows the wisdom in that decision, even though it's missing that amazing cut with Eminem that was floating around the Net before the official release. He's the best he's ever been now, and he'll be bringing his manic stage energy and club-rending party jams to Love tonight.

When Congolese dance/trance/rock band Konono No. 1 first came stateside last fall, the price was right, but not much else was. Millennium Stage is great, but it didn't prove to be the best setting for the pulsating, distorted rhythms that this sprawling, multigenerational group creates. The music is as hot as the land it comes from, highlighted by perhaps the most unique of instruments, the likembe, an electrified thumb piano. So the somewhat sterile Kennedy Center, complete with confused ushers, didn't showcase the group to the best effect -- especially for those fans hoping to get down. Hopefully the Black Cat will prove to be a more conducive atmosphere for the band to let loose with its extended jams, which are heavy on call-and-response vocals, whistles and a variety of percussion. Opening at the Black Cat is Chopteeth, a local Afrofunk group with upward of a dozen members itself. The band was featured on the most recent edition of the Nightlife Agenda podcast, as David talked to guitarist Michael Shereikis and played exclusive clips of some of the group's songs.

Benefit shows always have a way of bringing together acts that you'd never expect to share a bill, and tonight's event at Jin is no different. You have DJ Fresh spinning bhangra and hip-hop, local indie rock stalwarts Metropolitan and coffeehouse folkie Jared Rehberg. The goal is to raise money, so drawing people with different tastes makes sense. The proceeds from the show will benefit the Children's Home Society and Family Services, an organization that runs humanitarian aid programs for education, health care, and other basic needs of children, teens and families in India, Vietnam, Korea, Guatemala and China. The $20 admission may seem steep, but if you get there at 8, you can enjoy free Tsingtao beer for two hours.

Electronic music is hyper-fragmented, and it's rare for practitioners, DJs and fans to step outside of their demarcated zones once they get well entrenched in them. For example, progressive house is like garlic to a vampire for soulful house heads, whose favored Afro-Latin percussion and soaring vocals would fail with a breakbeat crowd. This silo culture doesn't apply to super producer King Britt, who is able to toggle back and forth between brain hemispheres when he does opposing electronic styles. He's known for his deep soulful remixes and Afrobeat excursions as well as the funk revivalism of his outfit Sylk 130, but he also has techno roots. His new "Nova Dream Sequence" album is a trance-like exploration of dream interpretation through spare techno rhythms. He'll be tapping that sector of his muse with a late-night shift on the wheels at Five tonight.

Saturday, July 22
When it comes to can't-miss local music events, the annual Run for Cover show at the Black Cat is pretty high on our list. It's a pretty simple premise: Local musicians break off from their bands for one night to create tribute groups that honor (and mock) their heroes. It's always a night of fun and surprises. Last year, for example, we had bewigged rockers Just Oates covering Hall and Oates, the Queen is Dead sending up the operatic bluster of Queen (complete with a guest appearance by "David Bowie") and an all-female Clash cover band called the Sandinistas. This time around, the 10 bands on the bill include Phony Mony (which we think will be skewering Billy Idol), Dead Babies (Alice Cooper, perhaps?), the Violent Feminists and the Rockers, which Fritz thinks could be targeting either Judas Priest, who recorded "I'm A Rocker," or AC/DC, whose "Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap" included a song called "Rocker." Either way, you're going to laugh your head off, and the $10 cover goes to the Alkem Foundation, which provides free Web hosting for local arts groups and bands.

Washington's felt a lot like Rio this week, though we have more humidity and our Brazilian friends have better beaches, better soccer players and more women in bikinis. You can try to catch a bit of the Ipanema vibe tonight at Dupont's Heritage India, where Euronet International and promoters Brazilian Night Entertainment are hosting a Brazilian T-Shirt Party. (Hint: They're giving away T-shirts.) Forget the clothes, though, and focus on DJ Marcelo's mix of Brazilian dance tunes and the raffle prizes, which include a round-trip ticket to Brazil. Doors open at 10:30, and admission is $10 in advance. (More information about purchasing tickets is at www.braziliannight.com.)

The Caribbean's primary influence on electronic music is the proto-drum 'n' bass known as jungle, which features chopped up breaks melded with dancehall vocals. There's a new wave coming, though. Out in California, DJ Rob Paine has been developing a reputation for fusing Jamaican dub with house music. Anchoring an intriguing stylistic mash-up of an evening, he'll be taking the turntables at Five tonight after an early set by Sister Nancy, a dominating female voice for over two decades on a scene where such an achievement is rare. Of her many releases, her tune "Bam Bam" over the classic "stalag riddim" is known the world over -- even by party people who can't name a dancehall artist other than Sean Paul. Also featured on tonight's diverse bill is the funky house of Implicit and Suneel.

Unlimited crabs, unlimited beer, plenty of hot jazz and Dixieland, plenty of dancing. The Potomac River Jazz Club's annual Jazz and Crab Feast has just about everything we'd need. Performing again this year is the Buck Creek Jazz Band, which plays a hotter sound of '20s and '30s jazz -- read: tuba and banjo instead of string bass -- that's perfect for the Charleston. When you're not dancing, there are unlimited crabs, hot dogs, snacks, beers and sodas, all of which are included in the $35 admission price. Let's run down that again: Jazz, beer, crabs, $35. The fun begins at 1 and tickets can be purchased from www.prjc.org. Note that no tickets will be available at the door.

Monday, July 24
When He'Brew beer first appeared in area stores and bars a few years ago, it was easy to dismiss the microbrew as a novelty act on par with that bluegrass cover of Snoop's "Gin and Juice." A kosher beer that draped its Messiah Bold ale in the slogan "It's the beer you've been waiting for" and billed its products as "Perfect for weddings, bar mitzvahs and circumcisions"? Clever. But here's the thing: Once we actually tried Messiah, it was pretty good. Founder Jeremy Cohen's been building a bigger reputation among beer lovers in recent years with quirky seasonal releases, and he's bringing all four of the company's draft beers to the Brickskeller tonight for a tasting, including the new Bittersweet Lenny's R.I.P.A., a rye-based India Pale Ale that honors the 40th anniversary of Lenny Bruce's death. (This tribute to the boundary-pushing comic contains "an obscene amount of rye and hops," nyuk nyuk nyuk.) The $10 admission covers tastes of all the beers and a chat with Cohen, so move quickly and reserve your spot by calling the bar.

Between all of the rain early on in the schedule and the heat of late, perhaps you haven't made it out to Fort Reno as much as you would have liked. Make sure you get out there tonight, though, no matter how bad a case of the Mondays you may have. First up will be Eyeball Skeleton, easily the best lo-fi elementary school-aged rock group around. Brothers Charlie and JJ -- with some help from Dad -- write simple, funny and very catchy songs about animals, zombies and other subjects of interest to people who probably still have bedtimes. It might sound shticky, but if you think kids having fun is shticky, then lightening up doesn't even begin to describe what you need to do. Finishing the evening will be the Mayor of D.C. Hip-Hop, Head-Roc, bringing his War Machine back to Fort Reno for the second consecutive year. Don't be frightened -- be excited. Head-Roc has passed the point where he is simply "one of the top hip-hop acts in the area," and you can throw him in the discussion when it comes to top hip-hop acts, period. His conscious rhymes, exquisite flow and spot-on beats never fail to impress.

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Roulette Table: We Fight Why?

Israel's raid on common sense
Posted on Monday, July 17, 2006. By Ken Silverstein.
SourcesA column published Sunday in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz by Gideon Levy, former spokesman for Shimon Peres, compared the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to a neighborhood bully. “A soldier was abducted in Gaza? All of Gaza will pay,” wrote Levy. “Eight soldiers are killed and two abducted to Lebanon? All of Lebanon will pay. One and only one language is spoken by Israel, the language of force.”

Now contrast that with the Washington Post's lead editorial from last Friday: “[T]here can be no doubt that Iran and Syria, Hezbollah's chief sponsors, bear responsibility for what has instantly become the most lethal and dangerous eruption of cross-border fighting in the Middle East in recent years.” Aside from the dubious assertion that Hezbollah acted on the orders of Iran and Syria, the editorial reflects the general thrust of most American coverage of the latest fighting between Israel and its neighbors—namely that the history of the Middle East conflict can be traced to the recent capture of Israeli soldiers.

The Post's approach is fairly standard. Consider this line from a CNN story: “Israeli warplanes were blasting the southern suburbs of Beirut in an attempt to destroy Hezbollah strongholds.” Yes, the southern suburbs are a Hezbollah “stronghold” in the sense that many of its roughly half-million Shiite residents support or sympathize with the group—and in that sense Israel's bombing runs will only make it more of a stronghold. But does that mean it's just fine for Israel to pummel the neighborhood, as CNN seems to suggest?

I spoke to Bob Baer—a former CIA officer who spent most of his career in the Middle East and the author of the new book Blow the House Down—about Israel's attacks on Beirut's civilian infrastructure. “Hezbollah gets power from the power grid,” he said sarcastically. “I guess that makes the power grid a fair military target.”

And what will all this collective punishment in Lebanon buy Israel? Not much, wrote Henry Siegman, the former president of the American Jewish Congress and Senior Fellow and Director for the U.S./Middle East Project at the Council on Foreign Relations, in an interesting op-ed on the conflict published in the U.K.'s the Guardian. Siegman wrote that Israel's military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon will not provide protection to its citizens but “may well further undermine their security by destabilizing the wider region,” and that the country's “political and military leaders remain addicted to the notion that, whatever they have a right to do, they have a right to overdo.” Siegman also takes a longer view of history than most of the American media, saying, “No matter how one judges the rights and wrongs of the recent Hamas assaults and Israeli reprisals, in Gaza the fundamental casus belli is Israel's occupation that has now lasted for nearly 40 years.”

In his column, Gideon Levy called Israel's military campaign “unequivocally a war of choice” and asked, “Are we at war in Lebanon? With Hezbollah? Nobody knows for sure. If the goal is to remove Hezbollah from the border, did we try hard enough over the last two years through diplomatic channels? And what's the connection between destroying half of Lebanon and that goal?”

As to Gaza, he wrote, “[A] soldier is abducted from the army of a state that frequently abducts civilians from their homes and locks them up for years with or without a trial—but only we're allowed to do that. And only we're allowed to bomb civilian population centers . . . The concept that we have totally forgotten is proportionality. While we're in no hurry to get to the negotiating table, we're eager to get to the battlefield and the killing without delay.”

Levy and Siegman are hardly radicals, and viewpoints like theirs are commonly expressed in the media abroad. But I'd bet there are few major American newspapers that would have published their articles, and I'd be even more surprised to see either (especially Levy) appear on the wasteland of cable news.

And what of the Bush Administration's laissez-faire attitude toward Israel's military campaign? Ex-CIA officer Baer believes that Israel would never have embarked on its current course of action without first running it by the Bush Administration. “They have a green light from Rumsfeld and Cheney to flatten their enemies,” he said. “They're taking advantage of that now because they don't know what's coming after Bush. They might have to deal with a responsible secretary of state who doesn't think chaos in the Middle East is such a great idea.”

“Bush has basically mortgaged your house,” Baer said regarding the administration's general Middle East policy, “and now he's gone to the roulette table.”

Both Israel and Hezbollah should be condemned for the deaths of civilians, but the toll is far higher in Lebanon than in Israel, which you'd never know based on the photographs being run in U.S. newspapers. The Angry Arab website ran a series photos of victims in southern Lebanon, which were taken by the AP, according to the website, but which I have not seen thus far in U.S. newspapers.


Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Roulette Table: How to Avoid Intellectual Property Theft

Jul 10, 2006
By Christopher Burgess and Richard Power

Today, the U.S. economy faces many threats, including spiraling energy costs, corporate governance abuses, huge federal deficits, foreign ownership of the national debt, the loss of jobs to offshore outsourcing and the impact of disasters (whether terrorist related or environmental). And of course, there is the looming possibility of a bird flu pandemic or other global health emergency that could result in the closing of borders, the interruption of business, the cessation of travel and the deaths of many thousands.

But there is another threat, difficult to quantify or even detect, one that has not yet grabbed the headlines or captured the imagination, and yet is relentlessly and efficiently looting, pillaging and plundering the U.S. and global economies of precious resources—vulnerable trade secrets.

Economic espionage is as real a threat as terrorism or global warming. But it is subtle, insidious and stealthy. Even if the United States finds the will to come to grips with the many threats it faces, this silent, invisible hemorrhaging of intellectual know-how and trade secrets could deliver the death blow to our pre-eminent place in the global economic world before we even wake up to the magnitude of the danger.

According to the U.S. Commerce Department, intellectual property theft is estimated to top $250 billion annually (equivalent to the impact of another four Katrinas), and also costs the United States approximately 750,000 jobs, while the International Chamber of Commerce puts the global fiscal loss at more than $600 billion a year. But both estimates appear to be woefully underestimated; by some other estimates, there was over $251 billion worth of intellectual property lost or illegal property seized in August 2005 alone.

The United States, like other great nations, stands on three legs: military power, political power and economic power. Arguably, economic power is the most vital of the three. Without economic power, its political elite would be bereft of the consultants and lawyers who insulate it; it would have nothing to bargain with at the geopolitical roulette table; and it would lack the bureaucratic muscle to impose its will domestically. Without economic power, the military would be unable to deploy advanced weapons systems, spy on its enemies from space, span the globe with bases or even raise an army.

Secrets are the magic ingredient of power. When state secrets—i.e., political and military secrets—are stolen, governments fall and wars are lost, people are disgraced and people die. When trade secrets—e.g., scientific or engineering secrets—are stolen, corporations lose their competitive edge, small entities cease to exist, and whole sectors of the economy weaken and fall behind in the global marketplace. People lose their livelihood and their children’s futures.

In other words, the United States could win the war on terrorism, overcome the challenges of global warming, balance the federal budget, strengthen the United Nations, end global armed conflict and restore our edge in science and engineering, and still end up behind China, India, Japan, Russia or Brazil in several vital sectors of the economy, and at a serious, if not fatal, disadvantage within the global marketplace.

The threats of economic espionage, intellectual property theft, counterfeiting and piracy are global, dangerous and increasingly common.

It is within your power to decide for yourself if your enterprise is going to be a hard target or soft target. The time for action is now. You can be prepared. Remember, it is important to invest in protective measures commensurate to the value of the asset being protected. Here are some recommendations for a comprehensive program.

Organization
Where security reports within an organization is perhaps the most vital issue of all. Consider appointing a chief security officer, who reports to either the chief executive office or the chief financial officer. This person should hold the reins of personnel security, physical security and information security, and should not be a stranger to the board room.

Awareness and Education
Educate your workforce on an ongoing basis about the threats of economic espionage, intellectual property theft, counterfeiting and piracy. Help them understand your expectation that they will protect the enterprise’s intellectual property and, by extension, their own livelihood. Provide general education for the entire workforce, and specialized education for executives, managers, technical personnel, etc.

Personnel Security Implement a “Personnel Security” program that includes both background investigations and termination procedures. You need policies that establish checks and balances, and you need to enforce them. Know the people you are going to hire. Don’t lose touch with them while they work for you. Consciously manage the termination process if and when they leave the enterprise.

Information Security Recruit certified information security professionals (e.g., CISSP, CISM, etc.). Adopt best practices, and establish a baseline. Utilize appropriate information security technologies, such as firewalls, intrusion detection, encryption, strong authentication devices, etc. Pay attention to data retention and data destruction as well as data access.

Physical Security
Do not overlook the “Duh” factor. It is pointless to invest in information security, or commit to background investigations, if agents of an unscrupulous competitor or a foreign government can simply walk away with what they covet.

Intelligence
You need both business and security intelligence. Know your competition, your partners and your customers. Research the market environment. Keep abreast of the latest trends in hacking, organized crime, financial fraud and state-sponsored economic espionage. You can outsource this expertise. But someone must be looking at both streams of intelligence, with the particulars of your enterprise in mind.

Industry Outreach
Actively participate in industry working groups appropriate to your sector and environment. Talk with your peers about the types of attacks or threats they are encountering.

Government Liaison
Leverage your tax dollars. Avail yourself of threat information from law enforcement, foreign ministries, elected officials, regulatory and trade organizations in your enterprise’s country, and in other countries where you conduct business.

Legal Strategies Realize that even when right is on your side, a market may be lost to you, and protecting a portion of the global market is sometimes a viable survival strategy. Litigation is not the solution; it is confirmation that intellectual property theft has occurred. Work to protect your intellectual property and avoid the costs associated with litigation. Don’t let a small legal mind make decisions about big legal issues. Get expert legal advice on intellectual property issues.

In sum, your security is in your hands. Employees tend to apply effort and intellect to the issue in portions commensurate with management attention to the topic of intellectual property protection. Employees line up smartly behind the leader providing direction, guidance and support. Providing that leadership is essential to your own continued economic viability in the global economy of the 21st century.

Christopher Burgess has recently retired as an officer of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, with 30 years of experience in the clandestine services. He can be reached via e-mail: cburgess@att.net. Richard Power (www.wordsofpower.net) is an internationally recognized authority on cybercrime, information age espionage and other threats. He can be reached via e-mail: richardpower@wordsofpower.net.

NOTE: Portions of this study were reviewed, and cleared without objection, by the Publication Review Board of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. A longer version of this article, with numerous real-life examples of IP threats, can be found at sister site CSOonline.com.

Friday, July 07, 2006

Roulette Table: Tony Sirico files suit against casino

NEW YORK, July 6 (UPI) -- "The Sopranos'" Tony "Paulie Walnuts" Sirico is suing the Atlantic City Hilton for using a picture of him on a billboard advertisement.

The billboard shows Sirico in a sharp blue suit with white-winged tresses, throwing chips down at a roulette table. The billboard said "Where else can you gamble with the family?," the New York Post reported Thursday.

Sirico claims he never gave the hotel permission to use the picture.

"It's an invasion of privacy," Sirico lawyer Richard Emery said, adding the hotel's move was "blatant opportunism."

Sirico and a crew of five of his castmates agreed to show up at a meet-and-greet event at the hotel for $260,000, the suit said.

Once he had finished with his obligation to the hotel, Sirico felt like playing some roulette.

"He was playing with his own money, on his own time and his presence in the gaming area had nothing to do with his contractual obligations to the Hilton, which by that point were fulfilled," the suit said.

The suit said a hotel photographer came up and took a few pictures of Sirico while he was playing without his permission.

The lawsuit seeks unspecified damages for invasion of privacy, breach of contract and consumer fraud for making people believe Sirico endorsed the hotel.


© Copyright 2006 United Press International, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Roulette Table: Free Roulette System That Wins

Many roulette systems have been tried out over the years, most failing miserably - a classic example would be the 'Martingale' system, which expects you to continue 'doubling up' on losing bets with ...

by R Russell

Many roulette systems have been tried out over the years, most failing miserably - a classic example would be the 'Martingale' system, which expects you to continue 'doubling up' on losing bets with the only certainty being that at some point it will clean you out.

The 'Supabets' (TM) method though, relies on 2 things for its success. First, the existance of online casinos, where there are no pit staff to notice what you are doing and throw you out, and second, the fact that the standard roulette table has an inbuilt flaw that is easy to exploit.


Groundwork - aside from the 0 or 00, each roulette number is either black or red, and if you bet on black or red, you win evens. The house edge in this case is the gree 0 or 00. So far so good. The roulette table, however, is split into 3 columns, each of which holds 12 numbers (i.e. a third of all numbers, ignoring the 0 and 00).


Now this is where it gets interesting - the first column has 6 red and 6 black numbers, while the second column has only 4 red and 8 black. The third column, of course, has 4 black and 8 red numbers. You can probably already see where this is going, can't you! If we ignore the zeros, then red and black have a roughly equal chance of turning up. It's like the toss of a coin, half the time it will be heads, half the time tails.


To use the 'Supabets' (TM) system, choose red or black as your target in this session. If you choose to bet on red, you bet $X on the color red, and THE SAME AMOUNT on the second 'column'. If you bet black, bet $X on the color black and an equal amount on 'column 3'. Whatever color you chose, you are now covering 26 numbers out of a possible 38, for only 2 x $X. If your chosen color comes up, you get back even money - i.e. the spin didn't cost you anything. If you only win on your column selection, you will make half of what you bet in pure profit. If both the color and the column come up you will win 1.5 times your initial bet.


Of course, in a real world casino, the pit staff will spot this pretty quick, and ask you to leave, because they aren't charities! Online, it's not a problem, and you can bet away to your hearts content. To summarise - bet equally on (a) red and the 2nd column or (b) black and the 3rd column. Make sure that you set a limit for the day beyond which you won't go, and stick to it. NEVER get tempted to 'double up' or try to recoup losses - remember that losses are your 'business expenses', and should be expected from time to time. When you get ahead, either take your money off the table, or raise your bets (because you are now effectively playing with someone elses money!). That's all there is to it - good luck!



About The Author

R Russell writes articles for www.supabets.com - the net's bets roulette tips site.

Copyright R Russell - http://www.supabets.com

Monday, July 03, 2006

Roulette Table: How other half live it up!

Jul 2 2006




Wales on Sunday


Sloanes in gowns and toffs in DJs are de rigeur at the Cambridge University Summer Ball. But Welsh student Josh Farrington reveals it's not so far away from a drunken night out back home...

"How's it going everyone?" shouts Alan from the stage, who's performing with The Rakes.

"How's the champagne?"

The crowd roars back happily. The champagne is very good indeed.

When we're young, we're happy with a bouncy castle and some ice cream. As we get older, a night out trawling the happy hours in Cardiff are good enough.


So it comes as something of a surprise to find myself in the rarefied setting of Trinity College, Cambridge, on the night of the First and Third Trinity Boat Club May Ball. Yes, it takes place in June nowadays, but it's still the May Ball - it's just one of those Cambridge things, like Magdalene being pronounced 'maudlin'.


The most famous of all the post-exam May Week events, the Trinity May Ball is reputedly one of the greatest parties on earth - according to those in the know, only bettered by the Rio De Janeiro Carnival and the Oscars in terms of opulence, extravagance, and sheer fun.


Even a year spent living and studying here, amidst the 16th century courts and portraits of Henry VIII haven't quite prepared me for quite how special this will be.


For starters, there are few parties where you feel underdressed in black tie. However, the spiffing gents who have turned out in white tie and tails put the rest of us to shame, not to mention the ladies and their stunning ball gowns.


Feeling sartorially inadequate is not the only worry as we join the security-tight two-hour queue down Trinity Street and through Great Court - there is also the looming threat of rain, which, whilst worrying the girls and their immaculate hairstyles, does give the whole thing a pleasantly Welsh atmosphere.


Inside the ball though, another sort of liquid overcomes worries of rain.


A college punt has been dragged into the beautiful cloisters of Nevile's Court and filled with ice and champagne. And, like a good Welsh storm, the champagne is never-ending, and the perfect accompaniment to the oysters that have been provided for the masses of people who wander slightly dizzily trying to take it all in.


The starry-roofed jazz tent, the raucous cabaret stage, the fountains, the fun fair, the ice rink. And, somewhere at the back, a bouncy castle - proof that parties don't change all that much. Ladies are warned to check the strength of the straps on their ball-gowns, before going for a bounce.


The queues for all the different food stalls - stuffed with Thai, pizza, chocolate fountains, hog roast and burgers, it's like Chippy Alley - are all disappointingly long, but the bars scattered liberally around the Ball are quick to serve, satisfying most of the guests.


The place practically empties though when crowds assemble on the Scholar's Lawn to watch one of the highlights of the night - the firework display. So popular that other balls held on the same night have gaps in their schedule just to gawp at Trinity.


The fireworks are designed by the same company that did the fireworks for the hand-over of Hong Kong to the Chinese, which might give you some idea of the scale of events.


People who failed to get tickets have filled the river with hundreds of punts to get a front row seat, effectively covering the River Cam in a wooden floor, so densely packed that you couldn't fall in between them if you tried.


It is an unbelievable sight.


The Ball continues in an amazing, dream-like haze of dance, drink, and indulgence.


The jazz tent has people jiving from the word go, whilst those needing a respite for their feet find solace watching brilliant improvised comedy acts on the cabaret stage. After getting drunk on this fast-paced atmosphere as much as the champers, we race to another highlight of the night, headlining band The Rakes, who provide us with their brilliant high-energy indie-punk pop tales of nine-to-five jobs and Friday nights spent in Wetherspoon pubs.


On a complete euphoric high, I somewhat unwisely head to the casino to see if my luck can last. I put up a brave front at the ruthless blackjack table, before moving on to the ill-fated roulette table of doom.


Though I feel like James Bond in my dinner jacket, I don't seem to have his winning streak, and my dreams of winning a fortune and swapping South Wales for the South Pacific go unfulfilled, for one more year at least.


After all this excitement, it's a shock to realise just how late or early it is, depending on how you see it, but those still feeling the party buzz know where to head next - Trinity's magnificent Great Hall, for a climactic ceilidh.


Jackets are thrown off with abandon, champagne flutes are recklessly knocked over, and partners are swapped without a second thought, and a good sweaty time is had by all. It's almost as though we're in a club in St Mary Street.


It doesn't matter that we don't know each other and have never done this before; we're still swinging each other round and making very loud, quite worrying whooping noises.


Drenched in sweat, blinking into the dawn light, I grab my final glass of bubbly and a salmon and cream-cheese bagel, and head back to the Scholar's Lawn for the customary Survivor's Photograph, a proud memento of our sterling services to decadence and debauchery.


After this, the dream is over, and we make our way through the quiet and pretty sleeping streets of Cambridge, pausing only to pick up our complimentary copies of the Financial Times (just to check the markets of course), before finally, crashing into bed the way we should have done hours ago.

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